The U.S. would need 1,500 GW of utility-scale solar power and 500 GW of rooftop solar to reach 100% renewable energy by 2050, according to a\u00a0plan\u00a0developed by Stanford engineering professor Mark Jacobson and seven co-authors. Battery capacity of 3,300 GW would balance solar and wind power \u2014 helped by 512 GW of annual average flexible load.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Several states have adopted a policy goal along the lines of 100% renewable electricity by 2050, yet the Stanford plan would go further by electrifying all transportation and heating. Flexible load to help balance variable renewables would include use cases for storing cold, storing heat, demand response, and production of hydrogen for use in trucks powered by fuel cells.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The authors say \u201cwe must stop\u201d 80% of fossil fuel emissions by 2030 to avoid 1.5\u00b0C global warming, citing a previous study. Reaching 80% of the plan\u2019s ultimate U.S. solar target by 2030, starting from the current level of about\u00a075 GWdc, would require a 36% compound annual growth rate in solar installations, based on a DC-AC\u00a0ratio of 1.33. That 36% rate is notably more aggressive than the 18% annual growth\u00a0targeted\u00a0by the Solar Energy Industries Association.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reaching 80% of the Stanford plan\u2019s ultimate 3,300 GW of battery capacity by 2030, starting from the current U.S. level of\u00a01 GW, would require a compound annual growth rate of just over 100%. That compares with an Energy Storage Association\u00a0post\u00a0quoting\u00a0Tom Leyden, Senior Director of EDF Renewables North America, saying, \u201cOver the next 3 to 5 years, you\u2019re going to see tremendous growth\u201d in storage, as \u201csome of the consultants figure there\u2019ll be a 14 times growth over the next four or five years,\u201d whereas a 3-year timeframe would represent an annual growth rate in installations of 100%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Consumers would save 64% on their annual energy costs in 2050 under the plan, compared to a \u201cbusiness as usual\u201d scenario, due to low-cost solar and wind power, plus savings from energy-efficient heat pumps, electric vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles. Savings when counting avoided deaths and illness from air pollution, and climate benefits, are greater\u2014with costs 87% lower than the \u201cbusiness as usual\u201d case.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The plan identifies several industrial processes that can largely operate at times of high renewable generation, thus providing flexible load: \u201cair liquefaction; induction and ladle metallurgy; water pumping with variable speed drives; and production by electrolysis of aluminum, chlor-alkali, potassium hydroxide, magnesium, sodium chlorate, and copper.\u201d\u00a0 Other research has identified a means of operating\u00a0desalination\u00a0as a flexible load as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The roadmap, which consists of plans for each region of the world, would need \u201conly 0.17% and 0.48% of land for footprint and space, respectively\u201d on a global basis, say the authors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To conduct their analysis, the Stanford researchers used the LOADMATCH model, which \u201cmatches the variable supply of energy with variable demand, storage, and demand response \u2026 every 30 seconds in each region from 2050 to 2052,\u201d as illustrated in this complex set of graphs, which the paper explains:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The modeling made a simplifying assumption of \u201cperfect transmission\u201d\u2014that is, no transmission congestion. The paper cited previous research showing that if long-distance transmission congestion is an issue, \u201cincreasing the transmission capacity will relieve congestion with only a modest increase in cost.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Stanford team\u2019s paper, \u201cImpacts of Green New Deal Energy Plans on Grid Stability, Costs, Jobs, Health, and Climate in 143 Countries,\u201d was\u00a0published\u00a0in the journal One Earth and is also available as a\u00a0PDF.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From: https:\/\/pv-magazine-usa.com\/2020\/01\/06\/2000-gigawatts-of-solar-power-needed-for-100-renewables\/<\/a> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Stanford researchers have a plan that would balance 2,000 GW of solar capacity and 2,300 GW of wind power with 3,300 GW of battery capacity and a large amount of flexible load. Consumers would save 64% on total energy bills, partly from electrification of transportation and heating. The U.S. would need 1,500 GW of utility-scale…
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