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<\/figure>\n\n\n\nIn 2012, as publisher of\u00a0pv magazine, I invited the publication to a breakfast event during the\u00a0EU PVSEC\u00a0show. The topic discussed was a polarizing one: A prediction 300 GW of solar generation capacity would be deployed annually in 2025 with a maximum of 200 GW of cumulative PV capacity expected in\u00a0Germany. As it turned out, that estimate was too conservative for Germany but on the right path globally. At the time, many judged the high expectations absurd because they could not imagine the storming progress of PV which has been taking place for some years now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2012 \u2013 a difficult environment for a big vision<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The idea for that medium-term vision came from many inquiries made of the industry in 2011. How far could it go with global PV? What was realistically needed for Germany\u2019s energy transition? I had presented preliminary considerations for a talk during the Semicon conference held in autumn 2011 in Dresden; the quantities of modules discussed surprised many at the time. Amid a troubled year for solar, we decided to lay out perspectives clearly and discussed solar predictions at Semicon and at the\u00a0Forum Solarpraxis\u00a0\u2013 today known as the Forum Neue Energiewelt \u2013 in November 2012. Then, just as now, some industry insiders warned against frightening politicians with such high numbers, an attitude which has had the effect of giving policymakers little confidence solar power can supply the required large capacities. As we know today, the figure needed must be more than 400 GW of solar capacity\u00a0in Germany alone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Let\u2019s stay briefly with 2012 to observe the path the German and global solar industries have taken since. Some 31 GW of new solar capacity was installed worldwide in 2012, of which 7.6 GW came in Germany, despite the strong FIT [feed-in tariff] reduction implemented by the government in February of that year. The reasons for that year\u2019s rally in Germany were global progress and overcapacity and massively lower module prices due to a high euro exchange rate. But that government decision also led to brutal losses in solar manufacturing \u2013 to numerous bankruptcies for photovoltaic manufacturers, to insolvencies and takeovers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The biggest blow was the insolvency of German module manufacturer Q-Cells, once a market leader, which was sold to the\u00a0Hanwha Chemical Corporation. That proved to be just the tip of the iceberg. In 2012, market research company Mercom Capital counted 35 bankruptcies and insolvencies as well as 50 restructurings and reductions in the scale of operations. Mercom pointed to lay-offs at German inverter maker SMA and the exit from the production of crystalline silicon modules by German industrial conglomerate\u00a0Schott. Europe was hardest hit in global market terms, especially in wafer production. Norway\u2019s REC ASA had to close three wafer factories in Norway that year, as did Schott and\u00a0PV Crystalox\u00a0with their wafer production operations in Germany.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Difficult years for the EU, global progress<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The following years were heavy for the solar industry in Germany and the EU.\u00a0Anti-dumping tariffs\u00a0introduced in 2013 massively damaged the entire supply chain as governments were no longer prepared to subsidize what they considered excessively expensive solar power. Only the elimination of useless duties applied on solar modules and cells \u2013 pro tariff company Solarworld\u00a0went insolvent twice\u00a0despite massive duties in the U.S. and EU \u2013 in 2018 brought the start of a rapid and broad recovery. The first solar projects without government funding became possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Global markets and production capacity have been growing every year since 2012, and since 2016 we have seen a leap in efficiency and\u00a0cost reductions. Despite the current\u00a0weak demand in China, a market volume of\u00a0significantly more than 100 GW\u00a0is expected worldwide this year. By 2023, analysts at PV InfoLink expect global production capacities to grow to almost 250 GW.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Simultaneously, further increases in efficiency and cost reductions will be achieved in connection with a series of technical innovations which will go into mass production. The long dominance of polycrystalline modules has quickly come to an end \u2013\u00a0mono is the new normal. Tomorrow\u00a0bifacial\u00a0panels should become standard, with some manufacturers already offering them with\u00a0transparent backsheets\u00a0at almost the same prices as conventional products. That will further reduce solar prices and thus open more new markets almost automatically. The result is a good chance of 300 GW of new solar per year in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n PV returns to Europe<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n By the autumn of last year, the EU was disconnected from the largest and most efficient global solar manufacturing operations and tariffs excluded the region from large volumes of technical innovation. Since the beginning of this year, however, the picture has been changing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For example, the\u00a0price of \u201cmainstream modules\u201d\u00a0\u2013 produced in large quantities \u2013 has dropped from just under \u20ac0.30\/Wp to \u20ac0.23 and, as things stand, it will probably fall even further next year. Mainstream\u00a0mono PERC modules\u00a0are bringing significantly more power per module than the rapidly aging poly module.<\/p>\n\n\n\n By switching from poly to mono PERC modules, performance per square meter has grown rapidly, bringing more and more power to the same footprint.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Cost implications of rising efficiency<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n It is clear cables, mounting structures and\u00a0labor costs\u00a0will not become more expensive so an extra 15-20% more power on the roof from each module will bring about a price fall per watt or kilowatt installed. The complete conversion to\u00a01500 V\u00a0in the field for ground-mounted facilities, which is almost upon us, will further reduce costs.\u00a0New wafer formats\u00a0and the use of larger modules \u2013 an idea which is finally starting to take hold in the EU as the 72-for-60-cell upgrade of the past makes way for 120-to-144 cell options, or even more \u2013 are\u00a0rapidly reducing the costs of large scale PV\u00a0even further.<\/p>\n\n\n\n At the same time, power electronics are becoming more efficient and cheaper and progress here is unabated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Globally, there are more and more tenders for ever larger\u00a0solar-plus-storage\u00a0projects. In September, a tender in California caught the eye with 200 MW of solar and storage for four hours for just $0.039\/kWh (\u20ac0.035). The storage unit was offered for $0.0133\/kWh. In energy storage too, the signs are also of much cheaper large systems, provided there are suitable conditions for use and solar and wind resources.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Efficiency gains and the energy transition<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Cheaper electricity means a cheaper energy transition. The increases in solar equipment efficiency are making better and better use of space. The area devoted to hosting around 50 GW of installed generation capacity in Germany today could hold almost 100 GW in the coming decades. \u201cWe\u2019ve already achieved 100 GW\u201d, one could say.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For today\u2019s net power requirement, only around 2% of the agricultural land of Germany would be needed and those areas would become a paradise for biodiversity and the\u00a0soil\u00a0underneath the panels. New products will be created based on cheap cells and new concepts for both standardized and bespoke\u00a0building-integrated PV\u00a0(BIPV), offering even better use of solar\u2019s enormous potential. This will take a little more time but it will certainly come because the advantages of using BIPV combined with local energy production are all too clear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Solar is doing the job<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Solar will do the job \u2013 throughout the EU \u2013 at a cost\u00a0cheaper than any fossil or nuclear\u00a0energy. PV is already doing the job and will get stronger every year and it is not only safer in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, it also protects species and soils.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Framework conditions are a must We are working on this now more intensively than ever at [German new energy agency] the Bundesverband neue Energiewirtschaft, and will talk more about our work shortly, maybe at the Forum Neue Energiewelt this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Let\u2019s talk<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n How we can accelerate the global assault of photovoltaics in the EU even further? Which framework conditions will be needed first? We will discuss this on Thursday and Friday at the forum along with 700 participants from the innovative energy industry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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The economy demands cheap green electricity and citizens do too. That is available from solar and wind turbines and now needs to be developed much more rapidly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n